Wednesday, February 3, 2016

So now what?

The Republican blogger GOPlifer looks in his crystal ball.
There remains a significant possibility that the party exercises its own revolt at the convention; a revenge of the establishment. This ‘Red Wedding’ scenario could see the party purge the insurgents entirely, putting someone like Rubio at the top of the ticket and giving the far right the finger. There is only one reason to do this – because Bernie Sanders is winning the Democratic nomination.
If Clinton is sailing away with the Democratic nomination, the Republicans have no reason to risk the damage of a purge. No Republican is going to beat Clinton and Republican insiders generally understand this. If Clinton is the nominee then they have every reason to let Cruz (but not Trump) take the nomination and lose in a landslide.
A Sanders nomination changes the logic. That race becomes not only winnable, but a near-lock for any Republican who isn’t a raving idiot. Republican insiders will be alienate Cruz’s supporters, daring them to sit out the race and elect a socialist. Sanders is just what Republicans need to restore a little pragmatism to their electorate.
Look, I get that Bernie appeals to idealists.  But here's the problem.  He has no practical sense of how to implement the change he advocates, except somehow touchy feely stuff that the voters will rebel and everything will change.  Well, the voters DID rebel and we got the Tea-party.  Plus Dems never come out in the midterm elections.

Moreover, he has some policy proposals that do not make sense.  He has no clear road map on his single payer health care plan, he proposes across-the-board tax increases.  And frankly I don't see him winning in South Carolina or other states.

So, what?  If he's the nominee I'll vote for him, but he's just not going to pull in the disaffected and sensible Rs, and there aren't enough progressives to win the presidency.

If Bernie loses the nomination, he can take his marbles and go home, and his supporters can be spoiled children and do likewise, and we get another republican.  Oh, that worked SO WELL with Nader and Gore, didn't it?

Or, he can throw his weight behind Hilary and they can work together to make sure a D is in the White House.  He's already pulled her leftward, which is good.

And, the same thing vice versa.

The Dems have to come together--no circular firing squads.  Goal number 1:  a Dem in the white house.  Goal number 2:  as many Dems down-ticket as possible.

Alas, the Dems have a proven record of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.

Get out the vote!


JCF said...

But doesn't it kind of smart to be in that "Over 50" demographic which is so predictably Pro-Clinton? [ITA w you, IT, but I'm just sayin'.]

FWIW, when Sanders began to surge, I honestly thought, "Oh Those Millenials. So Cute. They're being all IRONIC again!" Y'know, along w/ their hipster beards and artisanal whatever: Vote for the dissheveled socialist, and "Feel The Bern!" But apparently, IF they bother to vote, they mean (giving Hillary the) business.

Am I just OLD? I tagged along w/ my mom at age 10, to work for McGovern. BUT, by the time I could actually vote, I supported Carter over Teddy Kennedy. I thought that intra-Democratic split could give Reagan the win, and Hey! My 18 yo pundit-in-training was CORRECT. God help us, if this happens again...

[NB: I was for Obama in '08. I thought he could bring the country together---which largely didn't happen, though the cratering economy got the Dems big enough margins to get the economy stimulated and Obamacare passed---but also because I didn't think Hillary could win in '08. Now I think she can win, but Bernie can't (sorry, I don't believe the "Bernie does Better Hillary in the General" polls). I, too, have always been a pragmatic Progressive.]

Kevin K said...

I find if hard to accept that Secretary Clinton is invincible. She managed to lose to President Obama when she was similarly lauded as the unstoppable force. She has very high negatives and is the ultimate insider in a campaign in which frustration with insiders is the key issue. However, she has never won an election against any meaningful opposition.

JCF said...

I never said she was invincible, Kevin. I said I believe she CAN win---and is probably likely (as things stand today---though November is still a long way off). I think Gov Kasich could give her a very tough run---but I don't see his nomination by the 2016 GOP as likely.

Kevin K said...

Sorry, I was responding to the GOPLifer's comments, not yours. I should have made that clear.

I think that Secretary Clinton can win but that's certainly not a given as she doesn't have a very impressive track record in elections. I think Senator Rubio would be her toughest GOP opponent. Governor Kasich would also do well but he seems to be getting no traction.