Thursday, November 8, 2012

The Republicans' Demography problem.

From Slate, discussing why Romney's opposition to immigration reform (and support of Draconian Arizona laws) is not the only reason for his party's demographic problems:
Indeed, perhaps the most telling exit poll result about Hispanics is the almost identical thumping Romney took with Asian and Jewish voters, and even more so with black voters. ... ....The real issue isn’t Democrats courting minority “special interests” (indeed, as an economic matter Latin American immigration is good for everyone except Americans who primarily speak Spanish), it’s Republicans who use targeted outreach to help boost their share of the white vote despite a generally unpersuasive message. Viewed in that light, the anti-Sotomayor demagoguery becomes far more comprehensible. Far from an unforced error, it’s part of a reasonably effective strategy to ensure the loyalty of white voters without altering an economic agenda that’s relentlessly biased toward the rich.

This is genuinely too bad. There are some smart ideas in the Republican Party platform and bad ideas in the Democratic one. ....[But] clearly a policy agenda composed primarily of tax cuts for the top 2 percent or 3 percent of the income distribution doesn’t have much to offer the broad mass of people.

Latinos aren’t into that agenda for roughly the same reason that Asians and African-Americans aren’t—absent the frisson of worry about the “white establishment” being forced into minority status—it’s just not very compelling. To do better, Republicans don’t need a different immigration policy or better Hispanic outreach strategy, they need an overall policy that’s more compelling to the middle class and will help them do better with voters of all kinds. In fact, endorsing immigration reform now might make things worse for them, by enlarging an electorate that’s fundamentally hostile to their worldview.
What are the odds of structural reform?  The wingnuts and idealogues are already trumpeting that the problem is insufficient "conservative values", while the pragmatists are seeing the writing on the wall.  But, like the boy holding a wolf by the ear, the Tea Party drags them to be unelectable if they stay associated, but  they can't quite let go of the Tea Party lest they too are bitten.

1 comment:

David said...

"The wingnuts and idealogues are already trumpeting that the problem is insufficient "conservative values" "

Batter has a hard time connecting with perfectly good pitches. "So do the same thing, just swing harder!"

Said no batting coach ever...